All the pieces are in place for Georgia and Kirby Smart: Now it's time to get over the hump (2024)

Editor’s note:This is part ofa continuing seriespreviewing the Power 5 and top Group of 5 teams for the 2021 college football season.

ATHENS, Ga. — Let us take a visit to Narrative-ville, the college football version, where the most interesting house may just belong to the Georgia football program.

The view from outside the house: Georgia and its five-star-hoarding coach Kirby Smart need to win a championship soon. Preferably this year. Because if not this year — when so many players are returning, the coaching staff is stable and the schedule is set up perfectly — then when? And the longer Smart goes without accomplishing what he was especially hired to do — win the whole thing — the more restless and downright unhappy Georgia’s fan base will become.

The view from inside Georgia’s house, however, is decidedly less urgent.

Yes, everything is set up for Georgia this year, but also for 2022 and beyond. There is no imminent championship window that is closing anytime soon. The recruiting has been elite every year, including at quarterback. Talent in, talent out, more talent in. As long as Smart has Georgia in contention for the College Football Playoff, the vast majority of Georgia fans will be content, banking on a breakthrough at some point.

OK, public opinion does not deal with absolutes, so there are at least some Georgia people who fall in the 2021-or-bust camp, but also some non-Georgia people who recognize that Smart is under very little pressure. The state of the Georgia football program, in the short and long term, appears to be very, very good.

That doesn’t mean this year isn’t important.

Georgia needs to get better, or else the critics will start to have a point. Every year since 2017 — when Smart took the Bulldogs within a busted coverage of winning a national title, with a team mostly recruited by Mark Richt — the team has gone ever so slightly backward, despite having better talent bases every year. (At least judging by Smart’s stupendous recruiting classes.) A close loss in the 2018 SEC championship. Then a blowout loss in the 2019 SEC championship. Then not even making last year’s SEC championship.

Smart has shown he can coach well enough:

• Georgia has the sixth-highest win percentage in the FBS (.788, a record of 52-14) since 2016, and the second-highest in the SEC behind Alabama.

• The Bulldogs are also 32-9 in conference play under Smart, the eighth-best in the FBS over that span. They’ve also beaten Notre Dame twice and gone 4-1 in bowl games.

OK, but the knock on Smart is his handling of the offense, that he’s stuck in a mid-2010s, run-first mentality. But the hiring of offensive coordinator Todd Monken last year showed Smart’s willingness to open the offense up, however a lack of spring practice and quarterback problems tamped down Monken’s immediate impact. Still, over the past three years, Georgia has passed the ball more, from 26.5 pass attempts per game against Power 5 teams in 2018, to 29.75 in 2019 and then 30.6 last year.

Still, the outside view of Smart continues to ding his handling of the quarterback position (see Fields, Justin) and game management decisions that backfired (see Fields, Justin, and fake punt.) Even Georgia fans still debate the former subject, while acknowledging the latter as a sore point.

Those are pesky narratives, but the reality is that Georgia is still in position to win big … at some point. There’s plenty of reason to think it could be this year.

Roster analysis

Quarterbacks: It was about this time last year that JT Daniels caught plenty of people by surprise and announced he was transferring to Georgia, despite the presence of a grad transfer seemingly entrenched as the new starter (Jamie Newman) and a five-star recruit on the way in 2021. But Smart’s philosophy is to never pass on a great talent, and for all the criticism Smart gets over his quarterback decisions, pursuing Daniels has to be a mark in his favor.

Maybe it took longer for Daniels to get on the field to save the 2020 season, but now as the entrenched 2021 starter, he gives this year’s team a big reason for hope and offers a bridge to a future with several high-upside talents.

You can go a couple ways in projecting how Daniels will do this year. He could be the next Mac Jones or Kyle Trask, taking off in his first full year as the starter. The evidence for that: His pass efficiency rating (178.5) and average yards per attempt (10.3) would have ranked third in the SEC last year, behind only Trask and Jones. But the defenses that Daniels faced ranked seventh, ninth and 11thin the SEC in pass defense, along with a very good Cincinnati defense (fifth in the nation in pass defense) that was missing several key defensive backs.

Still, better to have provided hope than not, especially since Daniels has another year to work with Monken, and some pretty good skill-position players. (More on them shortly.)

Perhaps the bigger intrigue is what happens after Daniels (a redshirt junior) departs. Brock Vandagriff is a five-star recruit who has a strong arm and quick feet. But he’s still a freshman, so will Carson Beck, a redshirt freshman who had a good spring, get a chance to play first? Also looming is Gunner Stockton, a top-50 recruit for the 2022 class.

And lest it be forgotten, senior Stetson Bennett is still around as a break-glass-for-veteran quarterback option.

Running backs: This is another position where the depth is there, and the floor is pretty solid, but the upside is unknown. Georgia didn’t have an overpowering, nobody-can-stop-it run game last year. It wasn’t bad, ranking fourth in the SEC in yards per rush, but not to the level of the Nick Chubb-Sony Michel-Todd Gurley glory days. There wasn’t a sense that whoever got the ball could break a long one any time he took a carry.

There’s reason for optimism, however. Every tailback returns — the five leading rushers, something that hasn’t happened at Georgia since 2010. And experience won’t be the only strength for the group.

Redshirt junior Zamir White can again be the workhorse of the room, but he also showed more quickness and comfort this spring. The further he gets removed from two ACL surgeries, the more he reminds people why he was once one of the nation’s top recruits. Other talented backs are behind him: Senior James Cook has breakout ability: He was the team’s second-leading rusher and fourth-leading receiver. Sophom*ore Kendall Milton looked good in limited chances last year. Junior Kenny McIntosh and sophom*ore Daijun Edwards each rushed for more than 200 yards last season. Depth? Not an issue.

Wide receivers/tight ends: This was all set to be Georgia’s clear and unquestioned strength … until George Pickens, the team’s best receiver and the one defenses had to gameplan around, tore his ACL early in spring practice. There’s still a chance Pickens returns later this season, but in the meantime, it certainly changes the dynamic for the offense in general.

In two years at Georgia, 72 percent of Pickens’ receptions were for first downs or touchdowns. That’s the highest rate of any Georgia receiver with at least 20 catches over the past two years.

Perhaps another tall, athletic receiver emerges as the go-to guy. Freshman Adonai Mitchell had a really good spring, and sophom*ore Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint should be back after ankle surgery. Sophom*ore tight end Darnell Washington, all 6-foot-6 and 265 pounds of him, is a mismatch for any defensive player.

But Georgia could also embrace its rich stable of athletic receivers — sophom*ore Jermaine Burton, junior Kearis Jackson, super senior Demetris Robertson, redshirt freshman Arian Smith, redshirt sophom*ore Dominick Blaylock —and go even more vertical and up-tempo. The receiver corps isn’t as outstanding without Pickens. But it’s still pretty good.

Offensive line: There’s no shortage of talent here, with six former top-50 recruits, and there’s no shortage of depth, because only one of those elite recruits (senior Jamaree Salyer) is guaranteed a starting spot. The trick is finding the right group, and as of this spring, it looked like Matt Luke, the former Ole Miss head coach now in his second year as Georgia’s O-line coach, was still working to find that. It’s still not clear whether Salyer will play left guard or left tackle, for instance.

If everything breaks right, Georgia could have a great line. There’s a long way to go for that, however. Salyer and redshirt sophom*ore right tackle Warren McClendon are the key pieces. Otherwise, the line is an interesting mix of veterans — super senior guard Justin Shaffer, redshirt sophom*ore center Warren Ericson and redshirt sophom*ore left tackle Xavier Truss —who are trying to hold off younger but highly-talented guys: Tate Ratledge, Broderick Jones, Amarius Mims and Micah Morris, among others.

Defensive line: Good luck trying to run on Georgia this year. Besides senior nose tackle Jordan Davis, who surprised many by returning for his senior year, there’s also sophom*ore Jalen Carter, who has very high upside, and underrated super senior Devonte Wyatt. The defensive end who could become a star this year is junior Travon Walker. There is also a slew of younger players ready to contribute more, such as sophom*ores Warren Brinson, Nazir Stackhouse, Zion Logue and Bill Norton.

The headliner in the group is Davis, but by the end of the year, Carter and Walker could be stars as well. And Carter isn’t draft-eligible until 2023, so this line should be pretty good for a while.

Linebackers: In a recurring theme, Georgia is loaded here. Junior Nakobe Dean captains the middle of the defense and has All-American potential. Senior Adam Anderson and junior Nolan Smith are two edge rushers who will get more playing time this year and could emerge as stars. There are so many other good players that Georgia has to find creative ways to get them on the field, or they have to wait their turns. Whether it’s this year or later, sophom*ore MJ Sherman and freshmen Smael Mondon and Xavian Sorey have standout potential.

Defensive backs: This was the clear area of concern that could be just fine by the end of the season, as long as it’s not too late. Georgia lost four defensive backs to the draft and another (Tyrique Stevenson) to transfer. The Bulldogs went to the transfer portal to fill the nickel back role with Tykee Smith, a junior who had been at West Virginia. Then the team hopes they’ll find at least two more starters between fifth-year senior Ameer Speed, sophom*ore Jalen Kimber, redshirt freshman Kelee Ringo and freshman Nyland Green. But all of them except for Speed will be getting either their first or second college start against Clemson.

The back end of the defense is at least set: Junior Lewis Cine was solid as the strong safety last year, and senior Christopher Smith started the latter part of the season. They provide experience, as does Tykee Smith, to buy time for the youngsters to get acclimated at cornerback.

Special teams: Not many teams are as well-off here. Redshirt junior Jack Podlesny, a walk-on and surprising winner of the place-kicking job last year, is coming off his game-winning 53-yard field goal to win the Peach Bowl. Senior punter Jake Camarda led the SEC in punting average (46.6). The return game should also be in good shape with Jackson, who led the SEC in punt return average, or whichever speedster the team has return punts or kicks.

What others are saying about Georgia

One opposing SEC coach offered up his thoughts on the Bulldogs to The Athletic on condition of anonymity:

On why Georgia is having so much recruiting success: “They’ve really done a great job putting up the new buildings and showing that they’re dedicated to every aspect of the prospective student-athletes. They’ve got the indoor (facility), the dining area, the new weight room, and look how quickly they’re going about it. Those resources show they’re committed to having all the aspects of things that could help guys get to the NFL.”

On why Georgia hasn’t won the big game the last couple years: “When I look at Georgia, it doesn’t seem like they’re able to get over that hump for whatever reason. I do know there’s a lot of people that go to Athens for reasons other than football, which can attract a certain type of kid. Maybe the kids that are going to Alabama, where there’s a little less to do, explains why their full focus is on football. At Bama all the players care about is winning.”

How the Bulldogs have recruited from 2018-21

The short answer to this: Very, very well. Coming off the trip to the national championship game, and after Smart built his Alabama-style recruiting apparatus, Georgia signed classes that ranked first, second, first and fourth in the 247Sports Composite rankings. That’s a lot of talent stacked on top of itself.

Even with all the high-profile transfers over the last few years — if you’re reading this, you probably know their names — this year’s Georgia team will still have 16 five-stars from those classes, and 14 more who were ranked in the national top 100. The position distribution by those 30 is also fairly good:

• Linebackers: 8

• Offensive linemen: 7

• Wide receivers/tight ends: 6

• Defensive backs: 4

• Running backs: 2

• Defensive linemen: 2

• Quarterbacks: 1

This doesn’t count transfers into the program (such as former five-star JT Daniels), a number of players barely outside the top 100 who have been productive (such as Kearis Jackson, rated No. 125th overall in his class) or three-stars the program evaluated as better than their ranking (Jordan Davis).

Nope, recruiting is not the problem here. It’s been so good that it has created expectations that inevitably lead to criticism when wins don’t follow.

Transfers to know

Georgia had an opening for two things: A nickel back, and a Philadelphia native. West Virginia cornerback Tykee Smith filled both needs.

Actually, there wasn’t a clear opening at nickel back, where fifth-year senior Latavious Brini had done a solid job in the Peach Bowl. But when Tykee Smith, a freshman All-American in 2019 and a third-team AP All-American in 2020, became available in the transfer portal, Georgia jumped. The nickel back (or star) position is one of the most critical on defense these days against more spread-open offenses, and given its dual emphasis — you tend to cover more run plays than outside corners — experience is key. The last couple years, the position was manned mostly by Mark Webb, who followed D’Andre Swift as Philly natives who had come to Athens. Now here, for at least one year, is Smith.

Impact of coaching changes

Georgia almost had a significant departure: Defensive coordinator Dan Lanning was this close to leaving to take the same job on head coach Steve Sarkisian’s new staff at Texas, but Smart and Georgia convinced him to stay, helped by a raise (from $1.25 to $1.75 million). A man whose star rose fast, Lanning was also mentioned for the Kansas head coaching job, and if and when he does leave there already seems a natural replacement on staff.

Will Muschamp is back at Georgia, his alma mater, after more than two decades away, bringing his experience — both as a defensive coordinator and two-time SEC head coach — in a senior analyst role. It’ll be interesting to watch this season if Muschamp, close friends with Smart, has an impact beyond just X’s and O’s, in the way that Saban has utilized (and rehabilitated) former head coaches.

Otherwise Smart had pretty good continuity on his staff this offseason. The one change was at secondary coach, where Charlton Warren left to become Indiana’s defensive coordinator, and was replaced by West Virginia’s Jahmile Addae. His impact was felt immediately: Tykee Smith transferred in from West Virginia.

Schedule analysis

A big reason to think this could be Georgia’s year: The regular season gauntlet is … not a gauntlet.

The most difficult game on Georgia’s schedule comes first — against Clemson in Charlotte — and doesn’t count in the SEC standings. Then that SEC schedule has arguably only two games to really worry about: Florida in Jacksonville, and at Auburn. But the Bulldogs should be favored in both, and they’re spaced out well, at least for Georgia’s purposes.

You could see Missouri, Kentucky and Arkansas having good teams this year, but those games are all in Athens. It’s hard to see any other game being a problem, unless Georgia Tech rises up this year, or first-year coaches at Tennessee, South Carolina orVanderbilt lead immediate, and amazing, turnarounds. Otherwise, this is why the outside people say this must be Georgia’s year … or else.

Final assessment

Historically, Georgia seems to do better when it’s not expected. (Such as in 2017.) When expectations are there, something very Georgia always seems to happen, and Pickens’ injury allows us to already check that box. Even without him, though, Georgia should be good enough to get back to the SEC championship, which alone would show some improvement, and there’s enough else in place to do more. Smart the coach will continue to be judged on whether he lives up to expectations. But Smart the program-builder also needs to be credited for creating those expectations.

Georgia’s national championship odds from BetMGM: 9-1

(Top photo: Tony Walsh / UGA Athletics)